2030年黑龙江流域预估城市扩张分布图
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The Global Urban Expansion Probability Grid has made spatially explicit probability predictions of global urban land cover changes from 2000 to 2030 at a resolution of 2.5 arcminutes by 2030. For each non urban grid unit in 2000, the Monte Carlo model assigned the probability of becoming a city by 2030. The author first extracted approximately 2000 years of urban coverage from NASA MODIS Land Cover Type Product 5th Edition, which provides conservative estimates of global urban land cover. Then, the author used the population density from the Global Urban Rural Mapping Project Version 1 (GRUMPv1) to create a population density driver map. They estimated the number of new urban land in each United Nations region by 2030 using Monte Carlo methods based on the empirical distribution of current regional urban population density and the probability density function of expected regional population and GDP values by 2030. In order to facilitate integration with other data products, CIESIN reprojects the data from Good's Homolosine to Geographic WGS84 projection. Obtaining data from the Heilongjiang River Basin through clipping, data source: https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/lulc-global-grid-prob-urban-expansion-2030